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5/9 - Wht futs are down 15-25c w/ YC up 2c as the crop report was a little unfriendly wheat and friendly corn & beans. We now a weather market that will determine price direction for 08 wht. NC buyers bearish and waiting til last moment to start buying Aug & Sep wht. Planting progress in the corn belt still behind 5 yr ave pace. Disappointing news for OC wht; US govt pledging $200 mil Food Aid and sold 9.5 mil bu of wht out of BEHT catalog stox to raise money for this AID. Approx 200,000 bu. white wheat and 9.3 mil hrw traded. More rain in the Midwest hurt NC prices. Hope the Funds see fit to buy again, or this game is almost over til weather tells us the picture. Possibly saw our pre-harvest NC wht highs 6-8 wks ago when NC Pasco prices reached SWW at $10/bu, HRW $12 plus, and DNS $13 plus. Futures limits are 60c on wht and 30c YC. Every country in the world saying wht acres and production will be up 5-15% this coming year. Ethanol demand for 5 bil bu YC this year will be a driver keeping all grain prices higher for years to come.
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2008 new highs were made on Feb26 & 27 at $10/bu SWW, $12.50 +/bu HRW, & $13.70/bu DNS all deld Pasco prices. The market quickly dropped $2-$3/bu each time new highs were made. Doubt these highs will be broken without major weather problems. This gives us all objectives to shoot for on selling more new crop. Think trend will recover from this latest sell off as the World enters new crop campaigns with almost zero stocks? 2008 crop size will move NC markets $2 to $3/bu either way over the next 6 mos. Growers should sell at least 60% of new crop wheat at these price ranges, it is profitable for you. NC corn prices highs were $220/ST fob farm bin range as more 2008 YC acres need to be planted to meet demand. Any problems with YC weather this Spring will move grain prices up again very quickly. We starting to publish 2009 wht prices. We have factored in an extra 25c/bu for us to cover the risk of interest on margin calls and ever increasing fuel prices. Weather, Funds, & Ethanol will be the drivers for a long time. Buckle in to see 50c price swings weekly if not daily?! Contact Dana Herron or Craig Teel at Tri-State Seed 866-627-4500 for all your seed needs. Please call us with your sell orders. DF
Fuel surcharges have added approx 6c/bu to our barge costs & 5-10c/bu to our truck costs since 2 yrs ago. Frustating as difficult to hedge these costs.
You can look at your unloads & grades through this web page. Call Joan & set up your password! Also you can look on our home page under the prices and click on your county to check on ldp's.
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The central U.S. was dry with mostly cool weather, Friday, except for Texas and the Deep South. Saturday will bring renewed rain to the western and northern Midwest, with rain and snow in the Northern Plains. » More DTN Weather Commentary