To read our futures brokers daily market opinions, click on Daily Commentary Tab on the left. Without major crop problems around the world this next year, hard to believe there is major upside price movement for US wheat. I think NC red wht should be sold again up another 15-25c from here? Sell any 30c rallies. Scroll down on home page to look at electronic futures daytime and starting again at 4 PM PST. Elevator hours will be 8am-5pm Monday thru Friday. Office hrs will be 7am-4:30pm Mon-Fri.
3/9 - Wheat futs 2-4c lower early w/ yc 4c lower. USDA crop report on Wednesday with very little news out today. The wheat market remains in its extremely choppy, range-bound pattern. Highly sensitive to the fluctuations in the dollar and wheat’s apparent commitment to doing the opposite of whatever it did the prior day.Still have sell orders in at 10c above Mon close. See 10c potential gain for the wk on corn as acreage bidding wars will start. Corn feels pretty strong and think it can gain more, It's climbed back 35c of 60c Jan plummet. Wht has clawed its way back about 30c from 80-90c Jan freefall but not any real reason for it to continue to climb more than another 10-15c if any? SW ugly at $4.70 Portland, with Asia our only customers and would have to drop 75c to compete with Russian wht into Egypt. US Export sales for last wk no good again. World carryout wht stox are big and will keep the price from moving up. Feb USDA report was mixed wht and slightly friendly corn so call it neutral at best. Wht futs approx 20c above support lvls that shld hold next 30days. Corn 15c above this same support. Index Funds still long 1.3 bil wht futs and 2.3 bil corn futs. Spec funds short 300 mb both wht & corn. Grain export pace picked up fractionally so export activity not the driver to raise prices. Next major rally will have to be lead by crop killing weather and not financials, so the odds are not very good for a major rally. Market is volatile which can cause 20c rallies that need to be sold (saw this 2/16 then crashed). US Wht exports still approx 75-80% of last yr pace, but SW is 20mbu above LY pace. All USDA crop reports since August have been projecting increased crop sizes and stocks and have been very bearish. As more regulations get written, financials & index funds will become less important market makers over time. White Club in $9.70/bu range Portland is in tight supply even with Japan reducing their club % in WWW to min 10% vs 20% past 5 years or so. Financial meltdown has slowed world trade by 35% volume.. in everything.
NC 2010- Wheat prices had big October rally and went up almost $1/bu then crashed 70c by mid Nov. Rallied 70c by Dec1, then crashed, rallied 50c by Jan11 then crashed 70c again. There's your 4 mo pattern! Now expecting less rallies unless crop killing weather appears. New crop prices are now down 50-75c from Nov highs. These Pasco price highs were: $5/bu for SW, $6.10 for HRW, & $6.70 for DNS. World wheat crops in pretty good shape with bigger ending stocks than we've had the last 5 years. Same goes for NC10 corn as it rallied $1/bu in Oct and has only kept 30c of this rally lately. With new rules for Spec Fund & Index Fund position limits, we don't expect the big gyratons we have seen the past 2 years. I'm thinking that any 15-25c rally from here needs to be sold. Figure out what grain prices are profitable and sell them. More of a defensive year ahead. CRC crop insurance was lowered to $5.50/bu for 2010, but it still helps protect you on the downside. Weather markets ahead on corn and soybeans stillwill more than likely cause some rallies on dryness, wetness, and freeze issues. World economy still needs to improve to get goods moving again. DF
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Wednesday will be rainy over most of the Midwest, with some freezing precipitation in the eastern Dakotas, and snow from western Nebraska north through the northwestern Plains. » More DTN Weather Commentary