To read our futures brokers daily market opinions, click on Daily Commentary Tab on the left. Without major crop problems around the world this next year, hard to believe there is major upside price movement for US wheats thru the Winter. Sell any 30c rallies. Scroll down on home page to look at electronic futures daytime and starting again at 4 PM PST. Elevator hours will be 8am-5pm Monday thru Friday. Office hrs will be 7am-4:30pm Mon-Fri.
2/5 - Wht down 2-5c and corn down 3c. gonna be flat line to down for a while. Export sales were just ok last week! Wht futs approx 15-20c above 2nd support lvls that shld hold next 30days. Corn 10-15c above this same support. Index Funds still long 1.3 bil wht futs and 2.3 bil corn futs. Spec funds short 300 mb both wht & corn. Wht futs are down 70-90c since Jan11 and corn crashed 65c same time period. Grain export pace picked up fractionally so export activity not the driver to raise prices. US SRW and SW price with frgt still 60-90c uncompetitive into Egypt vs Black Sea is a big deal. Egypt bot 9mbu Russian/French on 2/4 at 4.75/bu FOB. Next major rally will have to be lead by crop killing weather and not financials, so the odds are not very good for a major rally. Market is volatile which can cause 20-30c rallies that need to be sold. SW flat and and maybe enough Asian demand to keep OC price in sight of $5 Portland range. US Wht exports still approx 70% of last yr pace, but SW is 20mbu above LY pace. All USDA crop reports since August have been projecting increased crop sizes and stocks and have been very bearish. As more regulations get written, financials & index funds will become less important market makers over time. White Club in $9/bu range Portland is in tight supply even with Japan reducing their club % in WWW to min 10% vs 20% past 5 years or so. Financial meltdown has slowed world trade by 35% volume.. in everything.
NC 2010- Wheat prices had big October rally and went up almost $1/bu then crashed 70c by mid Nov. Rallied another 70c by Dec1 and then crashed 70c again. There's your pattern! These Pasco prices should be sold when reached again: $5/bu for SW, $6.00 for HRW, & $6.55 for DNS. Be ready to sell the next rally if prices repeat Oct23 highs. World wheat crops in pretty good shape so far for next years crops. Same goes for NC10 corn as it rallied $1/bu in Oct and has taken 2 40c/bu swings down and up. We have a year to go, and expect some volatility ahead with more rallies. With new rules for Spec Fund & Index Fund position limits, we don't expect the big gyratons we have seen the past 2 years. I'm thinking that any 50c move back up is still in the cards. Mother Nature will mess with some areas in the World. Corn prices for 2010 are worth looking at again as futures have reached $4/bu again. Figure out what grain prices are profitable for you before selling and let us know what you want us to do. CRC crop insurance was lowered to $5.50/bu for 2010, but it still helps protect you on the downside. Weather markets ahead on corn and soybeans will more than likely cause some rallies on dryness, wetness, and freeze issues. World economy still needs to improve to get goods moving again. DF
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Light snow will cover the Southern Plains through western and northern Midwest Monday. We may also see some freezing precipitation in the Southern Plains. » More DTN Weather Commentary