Phone: 800-862-8529                                                          Fax: 509-545-0909
Weather |  Market News |  Headline News |  DTN Ag Headlines |  AgBizDir.com |  Crops |  Futures |  Portfolio |  Futures Markets |  Quotes 
 
  Home  
  Producer Account Login  
  About Us  
  PNW Charts  
  Daily Commentary  
  Real Time Quotes  
  Calendar  
  Contact Us  
  Tri Cities Grain Photo Gallery  
  LDP  
  Administrative Login  
 
- DTN Headline News
NOAA: Mild Summer Forecast
Friday, May 22, 2015 2:29PM CDT

By Bryce Anderson
DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

OMAHA (DTN) -- El Nino conditions are in place in the Pacific Ocean, and the presence of that feature has forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicting that summer weather will be generally mild across the primary U.S. crop regions.

El Nino is an ocean and atmospheric feature in the Pacific equatorial region, characterized by above-normal ocean temperatures and a prevailing west-to-east jet stream in the subtropical latitudes.

"We are seeing a big area of the Pacific warming to above-normal temperatures from South America to the International Date Line," said forecaster David Unger of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "Also, forecast models show a 90% chance of this warming to continue through fall. The strength is uncertain, but we are seeing the atmosphere reinforcing the temperature trend."

Both the NOAA June forecast and the June-July-August forecast -- which will encompass corn pollination and the majority of soybean blooming, pod-setting and pod-filling -- feature seasonal temperatures in most crop areas except for the Southern Plains, where the forecast trend is for below-normal values. Precipitation is expected to be above normal in the central and southern Plains, Deep South, Southeast and in the Rocky Mountains. Other major crop areas are predicted to have near-normal rainfall amounts.

The key feature of this summer forecast is the lack of widespread stress over the U.S. corn and soybean belts.

"I'm looking for generally 'non-extreme' in the way of temperature, maybe a little cooler than average," said Dennis Today, South Dakota State Climatologist. "Precipitation may not be very wet, but likely sufficient, even in the drier areas, (for crops) to do fairly well."

Todey is optimistic about yield prospects. "I think slightly above-trend yield is the way to describe the impact of El Nino," he said.

Grain market reaction to this forecast is generally expected to be bearish, reflective of the idea that the summer weather pattern will be favorable for big crops.

"With corn and soybean supplies already plentiful and soybean plantings at a new record high, another year of good crops that seems likely with this forecast will keep row-crop supplies abundant and keep potential buyers relaxed on the sidelines -- a bearish dynamic for corn and

soybean prices," said DTN analyst Todd Hultman.

Some meteorological agency forecast models call for El Nino conditions to strengthen to a similar category as the very strong El Nino of 1997-98. One feature of the current Pacific trend that brings a cautionary note, however, is that the current El Nino is out of season compared with other warm-water Pacific events, which usually develop and intensify during the November-December timeframe.

"This is the 'wrong' time of year for El Nino," said NOAA Central Region Climate Services Director Doug Kluck with an emphasis on the word 'wrong.' "The caveat is wait a few months. If there's a consistent sign of this strength, there may be something to that."

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(AG/SK)


blog iconDTN Blogs & Forums
DTN Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik
Markets Editor
Monday, May 18, 2015 5:23PM CDT
Monday, May 11, 2015 3:56PM CDT
Monday, May 4, 2015 4:59PM CDT
Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
Sunday, May 24, 2015 12:29PM CDT
Sunday, May 24, 2015 11:48AM CDT
Sunday, May 24, 2015 11:16AM CDT
Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst
Tuesday, May 19, 2015 2:28PM CDT
Monday, May 18, 2015 4:01PM CDT
Thursday, May 14, 2015 1:49PM CDT
DTN Ag Policy Blog
Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
Saturday, May 23, 2015 1:11PM CDT
Thursday, May 21, 2015 5:31PM CDT
Wednesday, May 20, 2015 11:46AM CDT
Minding Ag's Business
Marcia Taylor
DTN Executive Editor
Monday, May 18, 2015 6:44PM CDT
Friday, May 15, 2015 6:53PM CDT
Tuesday, May 5, 2015 9:25PM CDT
DTN Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson
DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Friday, May 22, 2015 7:16PM CDT
Thursday, May 21, 2015 3:31PM CDT
Monday, May 18, 2015 8:01PM CDT
Monday, May 25, 2015 8:43PM CDT
Friday, May 22, 2015 8:10PM CDT
Friday, May 22, 2015 6:25PM CDT
DTN Production Blog
Pam Smith
Crops Technology Editor
Friday, May 22, 2015 7:23PM CDT
Friday, May 15, 2015 4:39PM CDT
Thursday, May 7, 2015 7:29PM CDT
Harrington's Sort & Cull
John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Friday, May 22, 2015 8:42PM CDT
Friday, May 15, 2015 8:47PM CDT
Thursday, May 7, 2015 8:53PM CDT
South America Calling
Alastair Stewart
South America Correspondent
Monday, May 25, 2015 10:24PM CDT
Friday, May 22, 2015 5:41PM CDT
Thursday, May 21, 2015 4:11PM CDT
An Urban’s Rural View
Urban Lehner
Editor Emeritus
Monday, May 25, 2015 9:57PM CDT
Monday, May 18, 2015 11:18AM CDT
Monday, May 11, 2015 11:06AM CDT
Machinery Chatter
Jim Patrico
Progressive Farmer Senior Editor
Wednesday, May 20, 2015 3:53PM CDT
Friday, May 15, 2015 4:27PM CDT
Wednesday, May 6, 2015 9:14PM CDT
Canadian Markets
Cliff Jamieson
Canadian Grains Analyst
Monday, May 25, 2015 9:29PM CDT
Friday, May 22, 2015 9:10PM CDT
Thursday, May 21, 2015 10:28PM CDT
Editor’s Notebook
Greg D. Horstmeier
DTN Editor-in-Chief
Saturday, May 23, 2015 2:09PM CDT
Tuesday, May 19, 2015 8:59PM CDT
Tuesday, May 12, 2015 8:16PM CDT
 
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN