7/19/19- After four days of downward movement, futures finally bouncing back here today.  Led by Chicago and HRW futures both up a dime, corn and spring wheat following up 5-7 cents as well.  Appears to be nothing more than short covering after a long week of dropping.  Does not feel like there is much conviction behind the rally.  Updated WW harvest progress and crop conditions report out Monday afternoon.  Expect more of the same from last week, all conditions should be relatively unchanged to slightly better and harvest should be around 75% complete on WW.  US remains uncompetitive against South American corn and Black Sea wheat.  WW crop continues to grow almost daily with big yields being reported out of the Midwest.  USDA’s latest numbers projected HRW production at 804 million bu, majority of the market thinks it’s closer to 830 mbu and may even push 850 mbu.  Oklahoma and Texas all but done cutting, Kansas 75% done, and majority of northern states 7-10 days out from starting.  Corn carryout of 2 billion bu is too high and likely closer to 1 billion, but we will not know the full extent of the problem until corn harvest starts.  Until then corn will trade weather, (and the USDA’s published numbers, right or wrong) meaning plenty of volatility.  50 cent trading range in Dec futures between 4.20 and 4.70 seems likely to persist moving forward.  

Weekly export sales for wheat were 347K MT, led by HRW with major destinations being Mexico and Korea.  Old crop corn exports were 200K MT, new crop 133K MT (total 333K MT), major buyer Japan.  Old crop Soybean exports were 128K MT, and 198K MT in the new crop slots, major buyer was Indonesia.