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5/23/19- Corn board pushing highs from Tuesday again here this morning after floating around unchanged most of the day yesterday.  Same story, weather delaying seeding, forecasts remain cold and wet through 10 days pushing us up against prevent plant dates.  Wheat was trying to work higher this morning as well but slipped back quickly floating around unchanged.  Only issues in wheat are potential quality concerns in HRW and SRW with the excessive rains.  Ultimately though rain makes grain, crop was in excellent condition before the rains, and I lean to the side of this will be a big yielding ww crop.  Adding wheat production to balance tables that are already heavy.

Weekly exports for wheat totaled 394K MT, majority in new crop slots.  In line with expectations but still somewhat disappointing.  Corn exports totaled 626K M, high end of expectations, but corn market not focused on exports in the slightest.  Bean exports came in at 541K MT, north of expectations, soybean market remains an uphill battle.

  5/20/19  Percent Planted Last week 2018 5 year avg Percent G/E Last week  2018 5 year avg
WW  N/A N/A N/A N/A 66% 64% 36% 45%
DNS  70% 45% 76% 80% N/A N/A N/A N/A
YC 49% 30% 78% 80% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Soybeans 19% 9% 53% 47% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Trade deal progress:

Japan; working on bilateral agreement to allow US wheat in at same deal TPP members have while negotiations go forward. (We now at 50c/bu disadvantage vs Can & Aus.) so this is big deal and almost done.  Japan just got off golden week, and appointed a new emperor, government has essentially been shut down for the past two weeks.  No fresh news means no bad news, they continue to work on it.

China- Negotiations stalling as China backtracking on previous commitments.  Tariffs on Chinese goods being raised from 10% to 25% on $200 bil imports May 10th per President Trump and he looking to add new 25% tarriff on $300 bil more imports.  China retaliated 5/13 increasing tarriffs to 25% on most US agriculture products.  Anyone’s guess at this point on when an actual deal could be reached.  Doesn't really matter too much for wheat and YC as they only import 150 mb of each throughout the world.  Soybeans are the big deal importing 3 bil bu/yr split between Brazil & US in the past.  US also won WTO dispute requiring China to reduce wheat subsidies and double their wheat imports.  Mostly unenforceable...    African Swine Fever also decimating China's Hog production as their slaughter rate TY will be 2/3 of LY.  Means less soybean demand for several years and more pork imports for several years.  Estimates of 150-200 mil Chinese hogs have died and being culled. 

Brazil- Good deal to allow US wheat in at no tarriff. This could be big for US Gulf SRW. 
USMCA (replaces NAFTA) not ratified yet by Congress.  Need 1 or the other as Mexico and Canada are 2 of our largest trade partners.  Mexico can buy grain from other world competitors.  Agriculture sales est is 1.1% increase on USMCA vs NAFTA mostly from Wisconsin cheese and Dairy into Canada at reduced tarriffs. 

Cash Bids Delivered TCG
Delivery Start Basis Basis Month Cash Price Futures Change Futures Price
SWW Delivered TCG
DNS 14% Delivered TCG
HRW 11.5% Delivered TCG

Quotes retrieved on May 23, 2019, 04:13:21 PM CDT
All grain prices are subject to change at any time.
Cash bids are based on 10-minute delayed futures prices, unless otherwise noted.
Corn Delivered TCG
Delivery Start Basis Cash Price Cash Price (tonne) Futures Change Futures Price
YC Delivered TCG

Quotes retrieved on May 23, 2019, 04:13:21 PM CDT
All grain prices are subject to change at any time.
Cash bids are based on 10-minute delayed futures prices, unless otherwise noted.
Futures Quotes
Quotes retrieved on May 23, 2019, 04:13:21 PM CDT
Wheat Mixed on Thursday -

Wheat futures are showing mixed trade on Thursday, with CBT leading the way to the upside, fractionally to 2 cents higher. KC is fractionally higher

Cotton Higher on Export Sales Data -

Cotton futures are trading 87 to 107 points higher at midday. USDA released information on the 2019 MFP payments this year, showing a county damage

Soybeans Lower at Midday -

Soybean futures are trading 4 to 5 1/2 cents lower in the front months on Thursday. July soy meal is down 20 cents/ton, with soybean oil 48 points

Lean Hogs Market News and Commentary -

Lean Hog futures are mixed at midday, with June down 27.5 cents and July up a nickel. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 2 cents from the previous day @

Corn Dips as Trade Aid May Affect Prevent Plant Decisions -

Corn futures are down 1 to 3 cents in most contracts on Thursday, following the release of the Trade Aid information. USDA reported that the trade

Cattle Marginally Mixed at Midday -

Live cattle futures are anywhere from 10 cents higher to 20 cents lower in the front months at midday. Feeder cattle futures are also mixed, with

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Pasco, Washington (99301)

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