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7/19/19- After four days of downward movement, futures finally bouncing back here today.  Led by Chicago and HRW futures both up a dime, corn and spring wheat following up 5-7 cents as well.  Appears to be nothing more than short covering after a long week of dropping.  Does not feel like there is much conviction behind the rally.  Updated WW harvest progress and crop conditions report out Monday afternoon.  Expect more of the same from last week, all conditions should be relatively unchanged to slightly better and harvest should be around 75% complete on WW.  US remains uncompetitive against South American corn and Black Sea wheat.  WW crop continues to grow almost daily with big yields being reported out of the Midwest.  USDA’s latest numbers projected HRW production at 804 million bu, majority of the market thinks it’s closer to 830 mbu and may even push 850 mbu.  Oklahoma and Texas all but done cutting, Kansas 75% done, and majority of northern states 7-10 days out from starting.  Corn carryout of 2 billion bu is too high and likely closer to 1 billion, but we will not know the full extent of the problem until corn harvest starts.  Until then corn will trade weather, (and the USDA’s published numbers, right or wrong) meaning plenty of volatility.  50 cent trading range in Dec futures between 4.20 and 4.70 seems likely to persist moving forward.  

Weekly export sales for wheat were 347K MT, led by HRW with major destinations being Mexico and Korea.  Old crop corn exports were 200K MT, new crop 133K MT (total 333K MT), major buyer Japan.  Old crop Soybean exports were 128K MT, and 198K MT in the new crop slots, major buyer was Indonesia.         

7/15/19  Percent Harvested Last week 2018 5 year avg Percent G/E Last week  2018 5 year avg
WW  57% 47% 72% 71% 64% 63% 37% 44%
DNS  N/A N/A N/A N/A 76% 78% 80% 66%
YC N/A N/A N/A N/A 58% 57% 73% 72%
Soybeans N/A N/A N/A N/A 54% 53% 69% 68%

Trade deal progress:
Japan-  US at 50c/bu disadvantage to competitors Canada & Australia due to US pulling out of TPP.   No bilateral agreement has been reached to equalize US with competitor's tarriffs.  Japan now buying less PNW wheat.  A disaster for US... 
China- Negotiations continue and very little progress being made.  China not buying any US YC or Wheat and buying very little US soybeans.  Not counting on trade solution with China anytime soon.     African Swine Fever also decimating China's Hog production and reducing their demand for imported feed grains.  South America can probably take care of their needs now as they have geared up their production.    
USMCA (replaces NAFTA) not ratified yet by Congress.  Need 1 or the other agreement as Mexico and Canada are 2 of our largest trade partners.      
MARKET UPDATES AND GRAIN INFORMATION now also available via Washington Grain Commission Podcast here

Cash Bids Delivered TCG
Delivery Start Basis Basis Month Cash Price Futures Change Futures Price
SWW Delivered TCG
DNS 14% Delivered TCG
HRW 11.5% Delivered TCG

Quotes retrieved on July 22, 2019, 02:56:58 AM CDT
All grain prices are subject to change at any time.
Cash bids are based on 10-minute delayed futures prices, unless otherwise noted.
Corn Delivered TCG
Delivery Start Basis Cash Price Cash Price (tonne) Futures Change Futures Price
YC Delivered TCG

Quotes retrieved on July 22, 2019, 02:56:58 AM CDT
All grain prices are subject to change at any time.
Cash bids are based on 10-minute delayed futures prices, unless otherwise noted.
Futures Quotes
Quotes retrieved on July 22, 2019, 02:56:58 AM CDT
Cotton Higher on Friday -

Cotton futures were up 104 to 152 points in most contracts on Friday. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed another record

Corn Closes Higher on Friday -

Corn futures closed the Friday session with most contracts 5 to 6 1/4 cents higher after a week of losses. Since last Friday, Sep has dropped 5.17%.

Wheats Bounce on Friday Following This Week’s Losses -

Wheat futures ended the Friday session with most contracts 3 to 9 cents higher. Shorts took some of their winnings off the table ahead of the

Soybeans Close Higher on Profit Taking Fueled By Rumors -

Soybean futures saw 20 1/4 cent gains in the front months on Friday. That parred back losses from the other 4 trade session this week, as Aug was

Cattle Close Higher, USDA Shows Herd Size UNCH -

Live cattle futures posted 20 to 77.5 cent gains in most contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were up 30 to 55 cents. NASS reported all cattle

Hogs Post Gains on Friday -

Lean Hog futures settled with 42.5 cent to $2.025 gains in most contract on Friday, as Aug was up 4% this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 17

Full commentary...
National Newswire

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Washington USDA Newswire

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